Public data API
Contract
The read API is served from this site under /api/v1 as JSON over HTTPS. Reading public data needs no key and no account, and no request takes personal input.
| GET | Returns | Edge cache |
|---|---|---|
/api/v1/current | The current published envelope: facts, source health and the forecast snapshot. | 30 s |
/api/v1/forecasts/{id} | One published forecast, unchanged, with results and corrections added beside it. | 60 s |
/api/v1/forecasts | Published forecasts, newest first, at most 20 per page with a next cursor. | 300 s |
/api/v1/events/{id} | One reset event: its state, evidence, revisions and linked forecasts. | 60 s |
/api/v1/evaluations | Versioned evaluation summaries per model and horizon. | 300 s |
/api/v1/health | Public source health, the last check and whether facts and a model are available. | 30 s |
Null is not zero
Without an approved model or current data, probabilities are null and the reason is given (model_availability, unavailable_reason). A null is never a 0% chance.
Probabilities are decimals
Probabilities are numbers from 0 to 1: 0.2 means 20%, never 0.2%. The target is the first public completion confirmation of an extra reset, not any account's usage.
Versions
Every document names its schema_version, such as rc-current-1 or rc-forecast-1. A change of meaning gets a new major version; new optional fields do not.
Schemas
Example documents
Fixture documents with fixed dates (environment "fixture"), not live data. Both pass the published current schema.
No approved model: null probabilities with a reason
{
"schema_version": "rc-current-1",
"environment": "fixture",
"checked_at": "2026-09-26T00:01:00Z",
"generation": 1,
"facts": {
"anchor_id": "fixture_event_previous",
"fact_revision": 1,
"fact_state": "quiet",
"last_confirmed_event_id": "fixture_event_previous"
},
"health": {
"source_health": "healthy",
"source_checked_at": "2026-09-26T00:01:00Z",
"observed_until": "2026-09-26T00:00:00Z",
"reason": null
},
"snapshot": {
"schema_version": "rc-forecast-1",
"environment": "fixture",
"snapshot_id": "fixture_no_model",
"generation": 1,
"as_of": "2026-09-26T00:00:00Z",
"valid_until": "2026-09-26T00:10:00Z",
"target_version": "RC-TARGET-1",
"anchor_id": "fixture_event_previous",
"fact_revision": 1,
"fact_state": "quiet",
"source_checked_at": "2026-09-26T00:00:00Z",
"observed_until": "2026-09-26T00:00:00Z",
"source_health": "healthy",
"model_availability": "no_approved_model",
"model": null,
"probabilities": null,
"scope": {
"product": "codex",
"plans": [],
"quota_windows": [],
"certainty": "unknown"
},
"evidence_refs": [],
"change_reasons": [
"time_elapsed"
],
"source": {
"name": "codex-reset.com",
"url": "https://codex-reset.com/",
"credit": "Data: codex-reset.com"
}
},
"unavailable_reason": "no_approved_model",
"source": {
"name": "codex-reset.com",
"url": "https://codex-reset.com/",
"credit": "Data: codex-reset.com"
}
}With a number: p24 0.2 means a 20% chance
{
"schema_version": "rc-current-1",
"environment": "fixture",
"checked_at": "2026-09-26T00:01:00Z",
"generation": 1,
"facts": {
"anchor_id": "fixture_event_previous",
"fact_revision": 1,
"fact_state": "quiet",
"last_confirmed_event_id": "fixture_event_previous"
},
"health": {
"source_health": "healthy",
"source_checked_at": "2026-09-26T00:01:00Z",
"observed_until": "2026-09-26T00:00:00Z",
"reason": null
},
"snapshot": {
"schema_version": "rc-forecast-1",
"environment": "fixture",
"snapshot_id": "fixture_available",
"generation": 1,
"as_of": "2026-09-26T00:00:00Z",
"valid_until": "2026-09-26T00:10:00Z",
"target_version": "RC-TARGET-1",
"anchor_id": "fixture_event_previous",
"fact_revision": 1,
"fact_state": "quiet",
"source_checked_at": "2026-09-26T00:00:00Z",
"observed_until": "2026-09-26T00:00:00Z",
"source_health": "healthy",
"model_availability": "available",
"model": {
"version": "fixture_model",
"trained_through": "2026-09-24T00:00:00Z",
"artifact_hash": "0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000",
"evaluation_id": "fixture_eval",
"approved_contexts": [
"quiet"
]
},
"probabilities": {
"q_a": 0.2,
"q_b": 0.15,
"q_c": 0.65,
"p24": 0.2,
"p48": 0.35
},
"scope": {
"product": "codex",
"plans": [],
"quota_windows": [],
"certainty": "unknown"
},
"evidence_refs": [],
"change_reasons": [
"time_elapsed"
],
"source": {
"name": "codex-reset.com",
"url": "https://codex-reset.com/",
"credit": "Data: codex-reset.com"
}
},
"unavailable_reason": null,
"source": {
"name": "codex-reset.com",
"url": "https://codex-reset.com/",
"credit": "Data: codex-reset.com"
}
}Try a request
Send one of these fixed requests to this site and see the answer as it comes: a null stays null. Trying a request reads published data only; it changes nothing.
As a command: curl -s https://resetchance.com/api/v1/current
Use and attribution
The forecast is about a public confirmation, not anyone's account. Anything derived from the source must show Data: codex-reset.com on the same page or screen.
There are no plans, tiers or keys: every reader gets the same public data.
Keep responses for as long as their Cache-Control allows; the current forecast changes at most every 30 seconds. A client reading more than 60 times a minute may get HTTP 429 with a Retry-After header. A 429 or 503 is an error, never a 0% chance.
Do not redistribute an archive of source posts; link to the source. A published forecast stays as it was when a source is later withdrawn; the withdrawn text and link are removed from it separately.